Is the Economic Convergence of the Mexican States Possible? Estimates for the 1940-2013 Period
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2016.05.05Keywords:
Convergence, human capital, regional economicsAbstract
In this paper we study β-convergence: absolute and conditional, also sigma convergence, using cross-state regression models, based in a long term period of time for the Federated States of Mexico. When absolute convergence is estimated (Solow Model, 1956) we found the negative sign expected but the result is not statistically reliable; while, estimates for decades only show absolute convergence for the period of 1960-1970, known with the term of "Mexican Miracle", a third regression including population growth rate and physical capital investment per capita, variables as considered by Solow models, confirm that there is not absolute convergence like the first result obtained. The estimate including human capital index (HCI) and human development index (HDI 2), shows a number of outliers, suggesting the introduction of proxy variables which capture the political effects and explore conditional convergence. When panel heteroskedastic is considerate, convergence is observed, but β 2% any case was estimated.
References
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00148.x
Barro, Robert J., and Xavier Sala-i-Martin 1992. “Convergence.” Journal of Political Economy 100(2):223-251.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261816
Blanco, José. 1979. “Génesis y Desarrollo de la Crisis en México 1962-1979”. Investigación Económica. 38(150): 21-88.
Button, Kenneth. 1998. “Infraestructure Investment, Endogenous Growth and Economic Convergence.” The Annals of Regional Science, (32): 145-162.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001680050067
Diaz-Bautista, Alejandro. 2000. “Convergence and Economic Growth in Mexico.” Frontera Norte, 13(24):85-110.
Dobrinsky, Rumen. and Peter Havlik. 2014. “Economic Convergence and Structural Change: the Role of Transition and EU Accession.” Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche.
Dvoroková, Katerina. 2014. “Sigma Versus Beta-convergence in EU28: Do They Leand to Differente Results?”, Mathematical Methods in Finance and Business Administration. Proceedings of the 1st WSEAS International Conference on Pure Mathematics (PUMA '14): Tenerife, Spain, January 10-12, 2014, pp. 88-94.
German-Soto, Vicente. 2005. “Generación del Producto Interno Bruto Mexicano por Entidad Federativa, 1940-1992”. El Trimestre Económico. 72(3): 617-653.
German-Soto, Vicente. 2008. “El Stock de Capital Industrial Medido a través de la Relación Inversión-Empleo: Estimaciones para los Estados Mexicanos. Ensayos. 27(1): 53-80.
German-Soto, Vicente. Reyna E. Rodríguez Pérez and Carmen N. Escamilla Jiménez. 2013. “Acumulación y Desigualdad del Capital Humano entre los Estados Mexicanos Durante 1960-2008,” Paradigma Económico, Revista de Economía Regional y Sectorial. 5(2): 5-31.
Guillén, R. Arturo. 2000. México hacia el Siglo XXI. Crisis y Modelo Económico Alternativo. México: Plaza y Valdés Editorial-UAMI.
Huerta, Arturo. 1986. Economía Mexicana más allá del Milagro. México: Instituto deInvestigaciones Económicas-Ediciones de Cultura Popular, pp. 63-100.
Lucas, Robert. 1988. “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Jounal of Monetary. (22): 3-42.
Mathur, Somesh K. 2005. “Economic Growth & Conditional Convergence: Its Speed for Selected Regions for 1961-2001”, Indian Economic Review. 40(2):185–208.
Oblath, Gábor. Éva Palócz. Dávid Popper and Ákos Valentinyi. 2015. “Economic Convergnce and Structure Change in the New Member States of the European Union”, MT-DP 2015/44.
Ramsey, Frank P. 1926. ""The foundations of mathematics."" Proceedings of the London Mathematical Society. 2(1):338-384.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1112/plms/s2-25.1.338
Rodrik, Dani. 2011. “The Future of Economic Convergence.”Harvard Kennedy School Goverment. Faculty Research Working Paper Series.
Ros, Jaime. 1987. “La Economía y la Política Macroeconómica Durante el Auge Petrolero: 1978-1982” in Cordera, Rolando and Tello, Carlos (eds) El Auge Petrolero de la Euforia al Desencanto. México: UNAM, pp. 13-33.
Sachs, Jeffrey. and Andrew Warner. 1995. “Economic Convergance and Economic Policies”. NBER Working Paper No. 5039, February 1995.
Sikic, Luka. 2013. “Long Term Economic Convergence among Ten New Members States in the Light of the Economic Crisis”. Financial Theory and Practice. 37(4):361-381.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3326/fintp.37.4.2
Solow, Robert M. 1956. “The Production Function and the Theory of Capital”. The Review of Economic Studies. 23(2): 101–108.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2296293
Somasekharan, Jayasechar. Syam Prasad. and V.P. Roy Nirmal. 2011. “Convergence Hypotesis: Some Dynamics and Explanations of Agricultural Growth across Indian States”, Agricultural Economics Research Review. (24):211-216.
World Economic Forum. 2015. The Human Capital Report. Employment, Skills and Human Capital. Global Challenge Insight Report. Switzerland: World Economic Forum.
Young, Andrew; Matthew Higgins and Levy Daniel. 2008. “Sigma Convergence versus Beta Convegrence: Evidence from U.S. County-Lavel Data”. Journal of Money, Credit and Bank. 40(5): 1083-1093.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00148.x
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Published
2016-05-06
How to Cite
Mario Camberos C., M. C. C., & Bracamontes N., J. (2016). Is the Economic Convergence of the Mexican States Possible? Estimates for the 1940-2013 Period. Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 5, 48–58. https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2016.05.05
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Special Issues | Economic Growth and Convergence: Analyses for the Mexican States
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