How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2012.01.1Keywords:
Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Global Economy, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Volatility, El Niiños Southern Oscillations (ENSO)Abstract
Abstract: This paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major greenhouse gas, and examines how these gases affect the frequency and strength of El Niño on the global economy. The empirical results show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility accurately, and that 1998 is a turning point, which indicates that the ENSO strength has increased since 1998. Moreover, the increasing ENSO strength is due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The ENSO strengths for Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are predicted for the year 2030 to increase from 29.62% to 81.5% if global CO2 emissions increase by 40% to 110%, respectively. This indicates that we will be faced with even stronger El Niño or La Niña effects in the future if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase unabated.
References
Adams, Richard M., Ronald A. Fleming, Ching-Chang Chang, and Bruce A. McCarl. 1995. “A reassessment of the Economic Effects of Global Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture.” Climate Change 30: 147-167.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01091839
Adams, Richard M., Chi-Chung Chen, Bruce A. McCarl, and Rodney F. Weiher. 1999. ""The Economic Consequences of ENSO Events on Agriculture."" Climate Research 13(3): 165-172.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr013165
Ahn, Jae H. and Heung S. Kim. 2005. ""Nonlinear Modeling of El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index."" Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 10(1): 8-15.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2005)10:1(8)
Andrews, Donald W. K. 1993. ""Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point.” Econometrica 61(4): 821-856.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951764
Bai, Jushan and Pierre Perron. 1998. “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes.” Econometrica 66(1): 47-78.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2998540
Bai, Jushan and Pierre Perron. 2003. “Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 18(1): 1-22.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.659
Bollerslev, Tim. 1986. “Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity.” Journal of Econometrics 31: 307-327.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(86)90063-1
Berry, Brian J. L. and Qkulicz-Kozaryn Adam. 2008. “Are There ENSO Signal in the Macroeconomy?.” Ecology Economics 64(3): 625-633.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.04.009
Brunner, Allan D. 2002. “El Niño and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?.” Review of Economics and Statistics 84: 176-183.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003465302317332008
Carrasco, Marine and Xiaohong Chen. 2002. “Mixing and Moment Properties of Various GARCH and Stochastic Volatility Models.” Econometric Theory 18: 17-39.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266466602181023
Chen, Chi-Chung, Dhazn Gillig, Bruce A. McCarl, and Lynn R. Williams. 2005. “ENSO Impacts on Regional Water Management: Case Study of the Edwards Aquifer (Texas, USA), Climate Research 28: 175-182.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr028175
Chen, Chi-Chung and Bruce A. McCarl. 2000. “The Value of ENSO Information: to Agriculturae: Consideration of Event Strength and Trade.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 25(2): 368-385.
Chen, Chi-Chung, Bruce A. McCarl and Richards M. Adams. 2001. “Economic Implications of Potential ENSO Frequency and Strength Shifts.” Climatic Change 49: 147-159.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1010666107851
Chen, Chi-Chung, Bruce A. McCarl, and Ching-Cheng Chang. 2008. “Stronger El Niño/Southern Oscillation Events and the Economics of the International Rice Market.” Climate Research 36: 113-122.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr00738
Chen, Chi-Chung, Bruce A. McCarl, and Harvey Hill. 2002. “An Agricultural Value of ENSO Information under Alternative Phase Definition.” Climatic Change 54: 305-325.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1016160218221
Chu Pao-Shin and Richard W. Katz. 1985. “Modeling and Forecasting the Southern Oscillation: A Time-domain Approach.” Monthly Weather Review 113: 1876-1888.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<1876:MAFTSO>2.0.CO;2
Chow, Gregory C. 1960. “Test of Equality between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions.” Econometrica 28(3): 591-605.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1910133
Divino, Jose A. and Michael McAleer. 2009. “Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon.” Environmental Modelling and Software 24: 1411-1419.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.06.010
Davis, Mike. 2001. Late Victorian Holocausts: El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World. Verso, London.
Debelle, Guy and Glenn Stevens. 1995. “Monetary Policy Goals for Inflation in Australia.” Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper No. 9503.
Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller. 1979. “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 74: 427-431.
Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller. 1981. “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Econometrica 49: 1057-1072.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1912517
Dilley Maxx. 1997. “Climatic Factors Affecting Annual Maize Yields in the Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico.” International Journal of Climatology 17: 1549-1557.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19971130)17:14<1549::AID-JOC208>3.0.CO;2-N
Dracup, John A. and Ecran Kahya. 1994. “The Relationships between U.S. Streamflow and La Niña Events.” Water Resources Research 30(7): 2133-2141.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/94WR00751
Engle, Rober F. 1982. “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation.” Econometrica 50: 987-1007.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1912773
Glosten, Lawrence R., Ravi Jagannathan, and David E. Runkle. 1992. “On the Relation between the Expected Value and Volatility of Nominal Excess Return on Stocks.”Journal of Finance 46: 1779-1801.
Hall, Anthony D., Joakim Skalin, and Timo Teräsvirta (2001). “A Nonlinear Time Series Model of El Niño.” Environmental Modelling and Software 16(2): 139-146.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1364-8152(00)00077-3
Handler, Paul and Ellen Handler. 1983. “Climatic Anomalies in the Tropical Pacific Ocean and Corn Yields in the United States.” Science 220: 1155-1156.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.220.4602.1155
Hansen, Bruce E. 2001. “The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labor Productivity.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 15(4): 117-128.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.15.4.117
Hill, Harvey S. J., Jaehong Park, James W. Mjelde, Wesley Rosenthal, Alan H. Love, and Stephen W. Fuller. 2000. “Comparing the Value of Southern Oscillation Index-based Climate Forecast Methods for Canadian and U.S. Wheat Producers.” Agricultural Forest Meteorology 100: 261-272.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(99)00154-9
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Kovats, Sari R., Menno R. Bouma, Shakoor Hajat, Eve Worrall and Andy Haines. 2003. “El Niño and Health.” Lancet 362: 1481-1489.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(03)14695-8
Ling, Shiqing and Wai-Keung Li. 1997. “Diagnostic Checking Nonlinear Multrivariate Time Series with Multivariate ARCH errors”. Journal of Time Series Analysis 18: 447-464.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9892.00061
Ling, Shiqing and Michael McAleer. 2002a. “Stationarity and the Existence of Moments of a Family of GARCH Processes.” Journal of Econometrics 106: 109-117.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00090-2
Ling, Shiqing and Michael McAleer. 2002b. “Necessary and Sufficient Moment Conditions for the GARCH (r,s) and Asymmetric Power GARCH(r,s) Models.” Econometric Theory 18: 722-729.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266466602183071
Ling, Shiqing and Michael McAleer. 2003a. “Asymptotic Theory for a Vector ARMA-GARCH Model.” Econometric Theory 19: 278-308.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266466603192092
Ling, Shiqing and Michael McAleer. 2003b. “On Adaptive Estimation in Nonstationary ARMA Models with GARCH Errors.”Annals of Statistics 31: 642-674.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/aos/1051027884
Liu Jian, Shiying Wu, and James V. Zidek. 1997. “On Segmented Multivariate Regression.” Statistica Sinica 7: 497–525.
Maddala, Gangadharrao S. 1983. Limited-dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics, Cambridge University Press.
McAleer, Michael. 2005. “Automated Inference and Learning in Modeling Financial Volatility.“ Econometric Theory 21: 232-261.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266466605050140
McAleer, Michael, Felix Chan, and Dora Marinova. 2007. “An Econometric Analysis of Asymmetric Volatility: Theory and Application to Patents.” Journal of Econometrics 39: 259-284.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2006.10.014
McBride, John L. and Neville Nicholls. 1983. “Seasonal Relationships between Australian Rainfall and the Southern Oscillation.” Monthly Weather Review 111: 1998-2004.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1998:SRBARA>2.0.CO;2
Mjelde, James W. and Keith Keplinger. 1998. “Using the Southern Oscillation to Forecast Texas Winter Wheat and Sorghum Crop Yields.” Journal of Climate 11: 54-60.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0054:UTSOTF>2.0.CO;2
Moss, Marshall E., Charles P. Pearson and Alistair I. McKerchar. 1994. “The Southern Oscillation Index as a Predictor of the Probability of Low Streamflows in New Zealand.” Water Resources Research 30(10): 2717-2723.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/94WR01308
Naylor, Rosamond L., Walter P. Falcon, Daniel Rochberg and Nikolas Wada. 2001. “Using El Niño/Southern Oscillation Climate Data to Predict Rice Production in Indonesia.” Climate Change 50: 255-265.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1010662115348
Nelson, Daniel. B. 1990. “Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model.” Econometric Theory 6: 318-334.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600005296
Nelson, Daniel. B. 1991. “Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach.” Econometrica 59: 347-370.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2938260
Quandt, Richard E. 1958. “The Estimation of Parameters of a Linear Regression System Obeying Two Separate Regimes.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 53: 873-880.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1958.10501484
Piechota, Thomas C. and John A. Dracup. 1996. “Drought and Regional Hydrologic Variation in the United States: Associations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.” Water Resources Research 32(5): 1359-1373.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/96WR00353
Pielke, Roger A. Jr. and Christopher W. Landsea. 1999. “La Niña, El Niño, and Atlantic Hurricane Damages in the United States.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80: 2027-2033.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2027:LNAENO>2.0.CO;2
Shephard, Neil. 1996. “Statistical Aspects of ARCH and Stochastic Volatility.” Pp. 1–67 in Time Series Models in Econometrics, Finance and Other Fields, edited by D. R. Cox, D. V. Hinkley and O. E. Barndoff-Nielson. London: Chapman and Hall.
Solow, Andrew R., Richard F. Adams, Kelly F., Bryant, David M. Legler, James J. O’Brien, Bruce A. McCarl, William Nayda, and Rodney Weiher. 1998. “The Value of Improved ENSO Prediction to U.S. Agriculture.” Climatic Change 39: 47-60.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005342500057
Timmermann, Axel, Joseph. Oberhuber, Andreas Bacher, Monika Esch, Mojib Latif, Eirch Roeckner. 1999. “Increased El Niño Frequency in a Climate Model Forced by Future Greenhouse Warming.” Nature 398: 694-97.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/19505
Trenberth, Kevin E. 1997. “The Definition of El Niños.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 2771-2777.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2
Trenberth, Kevin E. and Timothy J. Hoar. 1996. “The 1990-1995 El Niños-Southern Oscillation Event: Longest on Record.” National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado.
Wong, Heung and Wai-Keung Li. 1997. “On a Multivariate Conditional Heteroscedastic Model.” Biometrika 4: 111-123.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biomet/84.1.111
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01091839
Adams, Richard M., Chi-Chung Chen, Bruce A. McCarl, and Rodney F. Weiher. 1999. ""The Economic Consequences of ENSO Events on Agriculture."" Climate Research 13(3): 165-172.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr013165
Ahn, Jae H. and Heung S. Kim. 2005. ""Nonlinear Modeling of El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index."" Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 10(1): 8-15.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2005)10:1(8)
Andrews, Donald W. K. 1993. ""Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point.” Econometrica 61(4): 821-856.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951764
Bai, Jushan and Pierre Perron. 1998. “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes.” Econometrica 66(1): 47-78.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2998540
Bai, Jushan and Pierre Perron. 2003. “Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 18(1): 1-22.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.659
Bollerslev, Tim. 1986. “Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity.” Journal of Econometrics 31: 307-327.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(86)90063-1
Berry, Brian J. L. and Qkulicz-Kozaryn Adam. 2008. “Are There ENSO Signal in the Macroeconomy?.” Ecology Economics 64(3): 625-633.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.04.009
Brunner, Allan D. 2002. “El Niño and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?.” Review of Economics and Statistics 84: 176-183.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003465302317332008
Carrasco, Marine and Xiaohong Chen. 2002. “Mixing and Moment Properties of Various GARCH and Stochastic Volatility Models.” Econometric Theory 18: 17-39.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266466602181023
Chen, Chi-Chung, Dhazn Gillig, Bruce A. McCarl, and Lynn R. Williams. 2005. “ENSO Impacts on Regional Water Management: Case Study of the Edwards Aquifer (Texas, USA), Climate Research 28: 175-182.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr028175
Chen, Chi-Chung and Bruce A. McCarl. 2000. “The Value of ENSO Information: to Agriculturae: Consideration of Event Strength and Trade.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 25(2): 368-385.
Chen, Chi-Chung, Bruce A. McCarl and Richards M. Adams. 2001. “Economic Implications of Potential ENSO Frequency and Strength Shifts.” Climatic Change 49: 147-159.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1010666107851
Chen, Chi-Chung, Bruce A. McCarl, and Ching-Cheng Chang. 2008. “Stronger El Niño/Southern Oscillation Events and the Economics of the International Rice Market.” Climate Research 36: 113-122.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr00738
Chen, Chi-Chung, Bruce A. McCarl, and Harvey Hill. 2002. “An Agricultural Value of ENSO Information under Alternative Phase Definition.” Climatic Change 54: 305-325.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1016160218221
Chu Pao-Shin and Richard W. Katz. 1985. “Modeling and Forecasting the Southern Oscillation: A Time-domain Approach.” Monthly Weather Review 113: 1876-1888.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<1876:MAFTSO>2.0.CO;2
Chow, Gregory C. 1960. “Test of Equality between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions.” Econometrica 28(3): 591-605.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1910133
Divino, Jose A. and Michael McAleer. 2009. “Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon.” Environmental Modelling and Software 24: 1411-1419.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.06.010
Davis, Mike. 2001. Late Victorian Holocausts: El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World. Verso, London.
Debelle, Guy and Glenn Stevens. 1995. “Monetary Policy Goals for Inflation in Australia.” Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper No. 9503.
Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller. 1979. “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 74: 427-431.
Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller. 1981. “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Econometrica 49: 1057-1072.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1912517
Dilley Maxx. 1997. “Climatic Factors Affecting Annual Maize Yields in the Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico.” International Journal of Climatology 17: 1549-1557.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19971130)17:14<1549::AID-JOC208>3.0.CO;2-N
Dracup, John A. and Ecran Kahya. 1994. “The Relationships between U.S. Streamflow and La Niña Events.” Water Resources Research 30(7): 2133-2141.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/94WR00751
Engle, Rober F. 1982. “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation.” Econometrica 50: 987-1007.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1912773
Glosten, Lawrence R., Ravi Jagannathan, and David E. Runkle. 1992. “On the Relation between the Expected Value and Volatility of Nominal Excess Return on Stocks.”Journal of Finance 46: 1779-1801.
Hall, Anthony D., Joakim Skalin, and Timo Teräsvirta (2001). “A Nonlinear Time Series Model of El Niño.” Environmental Modelling and Software 16(2): 139-146.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1364-8152(00)00077-3
Handler, Paul and Ellen Handler. 1983. “Climatic Anomalies in the Tropical Pacific Ocean and Corn Yields in the United States.” Science 220: 1155-1156.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.220.4602.1155
Hansen, Bruce E. 2001. “The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labor Productivity.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 15(4): 117-128.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.15.4.117
Hill, Harvey S. J., Jaehong Park, James W. Mjelde, Wesley Rosenthal, Alan H. Love, and Stephen W. Fuller. 2000. “Comparing the Value of Southern Oscillation Index-based Climate Forecast Methods for Canadian and U.S. Wheat Producers.” Agricultural Forest Meteorology 100: 261-272.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(99)00154-9
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Kovats, Sari R., Menno R. Bouma, Shakoor Hajat, Eve Worrall and Andy Haines. 2003. “El Niño and Health.” Lancet 362: 1481-1489.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(03)14695-8
Ling, Shiqing and Wai-Keung Li. 1997. “Diagnostic Checking Nonlinear Multrivariate Time Series with Multivariate ARCH errors”. Journal of Time Series Analysis 18: 447-464.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9892.00061
Ling, Shiqing and Michael McAleer. 2002a. “Stationarity and the Existence of Moments of a Family of GARCH Processes.” Journal of Econometrics 106: 109-117.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00090-2
Ling, Shiqing and Michael McAleer. 2002b. “Necessary and Sufficient Moment Conditions for the GARCH (r,s) and Asymmetric Power GARCH(r,s) Models.” Econometric Theory 18: 722-729.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266466602183071
Ling, Shiqing and Michael McAleer. 2003a. “Asymptotic Theory for a Vector ARMA-GARCH Model.” Econometric Theory 19: 278-308.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266466603192092
Ling, Shiqing and Michael McAleer. 2003b. “On Adaptive Estimation in Nonstationary ARMA Models with GARCH Errors.”Annals of Statistics 31: 642-674.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/aos/1051027884
Liu Jian, Shiying Wu, and James V. Zidek. 1997. “On Segmented Multivariate Regression.” Statistica Sinica 7: 497–525.
Maddala, Gangadharrao S. 1983. Limited-dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics, Cambridge University Press.
McAleer, Michael. 2005. “Automated Inference and Learning in Modeling Financial Volatility.“ Econometric Theory 21: 232-261.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266466605050140
McAleer, Michael, Felix Chan, and Dora Marinova. 2007. “An Econometric Analysis of Asymmetric Volatility: Theory and Application to Patents.” Journal of Econometrics 39: 259-284.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2006.10.014
McBride, John L. and Neville Nicholls. 1983. “Seasonal Relationships between Australian Rainfall and the Southern Oscillation.” Monthly Weather Review 111: 1998-2004.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1998:SRBARA>2.0.CO;2
Mjelde, James W. and Keith Keplinger. 1998. “Using the Southern Oscillation to Forecast Texas Winter Wheat and Sorghum Crop Yields.” Journal of Climate 11: 54-60.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0054:UTSOTF>2.0.CO;2
Moss, Marshall E., Charles P. Pearson and Alistair I. McKerchar. 1994. “The Southern Oscillation Index as a Predictor of the Probability of Low Streamflows in New Zealand.” Water Resources Research 30(10): 2717-2723.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/94WR01308
Naylor, Rosamond L., Walter P. Falcon, Daniel Rochberg and Nikolas Wada. 2001. “Using El Niño/Southern Oscillation Climate Data to Predict Rice Production in Indonesia.” Climate Change 50: 255-265.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1010662115348
Nelson, Daniel. B. 1990. “Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model.” Econometric Theory 6: 318-334.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600005296
Nelson, Daniel. B. 1991. “Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach.” Econometrica 59: 347-370.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2938260
Quandt, Richard E. 1958. “The Estimation of Parameters of a Linear Regression System Obeying Two Separate Regimes.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 53: 873-880.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1958.10501484
Piechota, Thomas C. and John A. Dracup. 1996. “Drought and Regional Hydrologic Variation in the United States: Associations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.” Water Resources Research 32(5): 1359-1373.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/96WR00353
Pielke, Roger A. Jr. and Christopher W. Landsea. 1999. “La Niña, El Niño, and Atlantic Hurricane Damages in the United States.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80: 2027-2033.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2027:LNAENO>2.0.CO;2
Shephard, Neil. 1996. “Statistical Aspects of ARCH and Stochastic Volatility.” Pp. 1–67 in Time Series Models in Econometrics, Finance and Other Fields, edited by D. R. Cox, D. V. Hinkley and O. E. Barndoff-Nielson. London: Chapman and Hall.
Solow, Andrew R., Richard F. Adams, Kelly F., Bryant, David M. Legler, James J. O’Brien, Bruce A. McCarl, William Nayda, and Rodney Weiher. 1998. “The Value of Improved ENSO Prediction to U.S. Agriculture.” Climatic Change 39: 47-60.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005342500057
Timmermann, Axel, Joseph. Oberhuber, Andreas Bacher, Monika Esch, Mojib Latif, Eirch Roeckner. 1999. “Increased El Niño Frequency in a Climate Model Forced by Future Greenhouse Warming.” Nature 398: 694-97.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/19505
Trenberth, Kevin E. 1997. “The Definition of El Niños.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 2771-2777.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2
Trenberth, Kevin E. and Timothy J. Hoar. 1996. “The 1990-1995 El Niños-Southern Oscillation Event: Longest on Record.” National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado.
Wong, Heung and Wai-Keung Li. 1997. “On a Multivariate Conditional Heteroscedastic Model.” Biometrika 4: 111-123.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biomet/84.1.111
Downloads
Published
2021-10-01
How to Cite
Chu, L.-F., McAleer, M., & Chen, C.-C. (2021). How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?. Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 1, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2012.01.1
Issue
Section
Articles
License
Policy for Journals/Articles with Open Access
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post links to their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work
Policy for Journals / Manuscript with Paid Access
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Publisher retain copyright .
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post links to their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work .
