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Abstract : Stochastic River Flow Modelling and Forecasting of Upper Indus Basin
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Abstract: Upper Indus Basin (UIB) region has faced seasonal and sometimes unpredictable disastrous flow in their tributaries and contributing one of the world’s largest Indus River System. As these streams emerged from high mountains of Hindukush, Karakorum and Himalaya ranges, and formed as a lifeline for the local population of which 90% is accommodate by Indus River system source. A little change in the regional climate may cause floods and outburst flows in the river and affects the lives, regional ecosystem and long part of the Karakoram highway. On the other hand, the shortage of water in Pakistan can create an alarming condition in future because a huge amount of eastern glaciers is shrinking. According to UN-ICC 2011 report Pakistan is in top of the four risky countries which adversely affected by climate change and especially worst hit by bi-catastrophes in 2010.During summer, intensifications of temperature may dissimilar for different locations/altitudes but it affects the glaciated areas. Moreover, the summer river flow and precipitation in previous winter and spring seasons has significant correlation shows their influence in the UIB region. Consequently, it may also be responsible for fluctuation in the seasonal/regular flows of UIB Rivers. To study these variations this paper analyses two types of data, mean monthly and 4-times moving average of monthly for long-term forecast. They belong to two different rivers Ghizer-Gilgit at Gilgit and Ghizer-Gilgit-Hunza at Alam stations. Both types of data illustrate a strong seasonal cycle. Therefore, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models of time series method have been used. The five selected SARIMA models explore 90% and more river flow forecast. Moreover, the result with 4-times moving average is more accurate than simple data. Keywords: Upper Indus Basin, SARIMA, Time series, Monsoon, Stochastic. Download Full Article |
Abstract : Bioconcentration Potential Studies of Heavy Metals in Fenneropenaeus penicillatus (Jaira or Red Tail Shrimp) along the Littoral States of Karachi City
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Abstract: Fenneropenaeus penicillatus (commonly known as Jaira or Red tail shrimp) is one of the commercially important and abundant species in the coastal areas of Pakistan and export to more than 40 countries world wide. It is a good source of nutrients for human diet because of its highly rich composition of protein, calcium and vitamins. The littoral state of Pakistan is facing much environmental issues during the last many years because of increasing pollution and human induced environmental changes which have gradually declined the export of shrimps. Crustacean species are considered as the bio-indicators of toxic materials due to their high affinity to accumulate heavy metals than fishes. The study was undertaken to quantify the heavy metals like copper, zinc, cadmium and lead in the Red tail shrimp. For this purpose biosamples were collected in year 2011 to 2013 from the littoral states of Karachi city, Pakistan. Flame Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (FAAS) technique was used to analyze the Cu and Zn while Graphite Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (GAAS) technique was used to quantify the Cd and Pb. Results were compared with the WHO/FAO/FDA values. The concentrations of selected heavy metals were within the normal range in all analyzed samples except for cadmium. Bioconcentration of cadmium was found much higher than the recommended value which is an alarming condition. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was applied to find out the concentration variation of heavy metals in three years research study at p < 0.05. The results suggested that there is no significant effect of year wise variation on accumulation level of heavy metals in F. penicillatus.. Keywords: Fenneropenaeus penicillatus, heavy metals, littoral states of Karachi city, FAAS, GAAS.Download Full Article |
Abstract : Seasonal Evaluation of Trace Metals in Irrigated Soils at Various Sites in Phuleli Command Area (Sindh), Pakistan
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Abstract: Phuleli Canal (Sindh) Pakistan is the main source of irrigation water for lower Sindh. However, its quality has been deteriorated by the addition of industrial effluents and city wastes discharged directly or indirectly into canal when it passes through Hyderabad city. For monitoring the effect of this canal water on soil quality of the command area, the present study was designed to evaluate the seasonal variability of trace metals including Cu, Fe, Zn and Mn in the cultivated soil area. The soil samples were collected from different seven sites (reduced distance, RD = 304.8 m) RD-0, RD-30, RD-50, RD-70, RD-90, RD-110 and RD-130) in four seasons (summer, autumn, winter, and spring) and analysed for Cu, Fe, Zn and Mn contents. Then, the obtained results were compared with the maximum permissible values of FAO for agriculture/crop production. Results showed that the Zn contents in soil samples was relatively higher than FAO permissible limits during winter in all soil layers and all sites mostly at upper reach sites of Phuleli Command area. While, the Fe content in soil at all depths was found higher during winter, autumn and spring. Whereas, in summer season it was relatively more in upper soil layers near mid to down reach sites and were not within the permissible limits of FAO. Same was true with Cu and Mn which were also not within the permissible limits of FAO for crop production. So, it was inferred that almost of the locations trace elements in soils found higher under Phuleli Canal Command area were mainly produced from various pollution sources viz, industrial and municipal liquid effluents. Keywords: Seasons, Soil, Trace metals, Phuleli Canal.Download Full Article |
Abstract : Impact of Entrepreneurship Education on Attitudes of Students Towards Entrepreneurship
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Abstract: Entrepreneurship has become an international interest of students. The economic and social relevance of entrepreneurship is established across the world and many offerings are available by the universities. This has resulted into an increased focus of university teachers on entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial activities. The purpose of this paper is to study and evaluate the impact of entrepreneurship education on attitude of students to become an entrepreneur. Relationship between the education and student in development of entrepreneurial attitude is proposed. Review of the literature also shows the importance of entrepreneurship education in development of entrepreneurial attitude. This study was carried out in universities of Pakistan and data was collected from 10 different universities in which entrepreneurship is available as a course or discipline. Sample of 329 students was collected and statistical tests were used to evaluate the relationship. It is found that a strong relationship and positive correlation exist between attitude towards entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship education. Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Universities, Entrepreneurship teaching, Entrepreneurial attitude, Entrepreneurial intentions.Download Full Article |
