Predictive Autoregressive Models of the Russian Stock Market Using Macroeconomic Variables - Pages 2439-2449

N.G. Bagautdinova, E.I. Kadochnikova and A.N. Bakirova

DOI: https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-4409.2020.09.296

Published: 30 December 2020

Abstract: This article evaluates the relationship of macroeconomic variables of the domestic market with the stock index on the example of the Moscow exchange and selects forecast specifications based on an integrated auto regression model - the moving average. The methods that have been used are included in integrated auto regression-moving average model with exogenous variables and seasonal component, Box&Jenkins approach, auto-arima in R function, Hyndman & Athanasopoulos approach, and maximum likelihood method. The results demonstrate that the inclusion of external regressors in the one-dimensional ARIMAX model improves its predictive characteristics. Time series of macro-indicators of the domestic market – the consumer price index, the index of the output of goods and services for basic activities are not interrelated with the index of the Moscow exchange, with the exception of the dollar exchange rate. The positive correlation between the Moscow exchange index and macro indicators of the world economy - the S&P stock index, the price of Brent oil, was confirmed. In models with minimal AIC, a rare presence of the MA component was found, which shows that the prevailing dependence of the stock market yield on previous values of the yield (AR component) and thus, better predictability of the yield. It has shown that for stock market forecasting, "manual" selection of the ARIMA model type can give better results (minimum AIC and minimum RMSE) than the built-in auto.arima algorithm in R. It is shown that from a practical point of view, when selecting forecast models, the RMSE criterion is more useful for investors, which measures the standard error of the forecast in points of the stock index.

Keywords: Macroeconomics, stock market, autoregression model, forecast error.

Download

Rules of Speech Behavior in Tatar and Turkish Proverbs - Pages 2450-2456

Iskander Zhamilovich Edikhanov, Guzel Amirovna Nabiullina, Renat Islamgarayevich Latypov and Akarturk Karahan

DOI: https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-4409.2020.09.297

Published: 30 December 2020

Abstract: Today, despite the abundant supply and scientific papers concerning particular features of multi-method, communicative culture and comparative linguistic research on the ethnocultural stereotypes of Turkic peoples' communicative behavior, it is vital in modern linguistics. The issue statement is because the ethnocultural examination of the Turkic peoples' communicative behavior permits us to look at the ethnos' communicative culture in the modern context and distinguish typical and distinctive characteristics of the Tatar's communicative culture Turkish peoples. This survey investigates the ethnocultural stereotypes of the communicative behavior of the Tatar and Turkish linguistic cultures expressed in the paroemiological fund. The analysis is based on the Tatar and Turkish languages' phraseological and paroemiological units within this article's framework. The research adopted descriptive, stylistic, and comparative techniques. Moreover, The methodological framework is the linguoculturological, cognitive-linguistic aspects of the investigation of paroemiological units. The most substantial typical categories of the Tatars' communicative culture are the culture of communication, politeness, sociability, verbiage, silence, conflict communication, and effective communication. In paroemias, truth is proclaimed before lie, laconicalness before loquacity, silence before speaking, deed before the word, listening before speaking. The examination of stereotypes of communicative behavior reveals that the Tatars persist faithfully to the observance of folk traditions and particular speech cultures.

Keywords: Ethnocultural Stereotype Speech Behavior, Speech Culture, Turkish Ethnic Cultures, Tatar Cultures, Paroemiological Fund.

Download